Trump did not look good in primary debates either, was mumbling and getting owned by opposition on a fairly regular basis. Yet, he won the nomination easily. He's completely immune to what is conventionally considered a poor debate performance due to the nature of his electorate that probably label strong debate performance as "typical politician shtick".

So yeah, I didn't see anything on the first debate that should swing the balance. Both candidates lived up to how they were supposed to act on that stage.