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Originally Posted by Kathleen
Upon doing more research myself I have to agree with both of you that a NO vote is the way to go.
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I just asked a friend who researched this subject for the last TWO years to explain to me why people would vote YES outside the core SNP populist base. [He is actually one of the leading political scientists researching this at the University of Edinburgh. Google him - he's all over the media right now: Jan Eichhorn].
Just quoted some of his answer below.
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Hey dude - the majority of Scots don't believe either side on the issue and is not basing their opinion on that specific thing - this debate helped reaffirm existing views for people who had made up their mind but didn't shift undecideds.
For the majority of Scots who support independence (of course I am not speaking for everyone, but about majorities and averages based on our surveys) there are pragmatic core issues that are associated with their decision.
Number one is the expectation about how Scotland's economy would do (note specifically the economy overall, not specific welfare promises for example which the "average" Scot is pretty similar in attitudes to as the "average" English person actually). Those who think the economy would do better, vote nearly all yes.
But there are other concerns that matter, too. Social inequality is a key one. The notion that Britain worked for 300 years is not shared by all. It may externally, but the rise of people using foodbanks and a demographic stratification in Scotland that means certain areas have life expectancies of just over 60 and others over 80 mean for people in those areas that some of those areas that they fundamentally disagree with a notion of a union that works.
For other groups independence is their chance to get rid of nuclear weapons (and potentially reinstate a new debate on them in the UK if the costs of relocation would be enourmous as it seems would be the case). There are some people who have been in the anti-nculear weapons movements for decades who see this as a chance to make a major change. It is a minority, but a substantial one for whom this is the vehicle for one of the most important issues in their lives.
One thing that is different in this debate is that a large group of people - 20-30% of the electorate, that never take part in elections are taking part in this referendum, not just by voting as it seems considering the polls and surveys, but also in the preceding debates. Therefore what it means for a country to "work" reflects views of poorer and tradionationally more disenfranchised people more than usual. They are still underrepresented of course, as in any political discourse, but all groups that tradiotionally are less engaged are more engaged here than at any previous occasion in recent decades here.
I don't want to create the impression that Yes is only supported by lower SES voters. Not at all - as outlined above, there are multiple groups supporting it. But it is within that group that the greatest amount of political activity has taken place. And I can simply not dismiss arguments that from that perspective appear fully valid to me (which is, again, not the same as me necessarily subscribing to them). Thanks for asking! I genuinely appreciate anyone who wants to discuss these issues rather than just making up their mind as I have seen other people outside Scotland do without asking any questions....
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Anyhow - interesting day today!